Can’t find workers? Also because there are fewer and fewer young people. The demographer: “Italy only has two years to reverse course or enter a vicious circle of decline”

It’s the only factor no one seems to take into account when it comes to the growing difficulty companies find workers I technicians specialized, engineers, computers. Someone, as always, at fault Basic incomemany focus on the evidence of wages too lowothers emphasize the distance between the training courses and market needs. The elephant in the room is there demography: no young workers (also) due to young in Italy there are too few. The phenomenon of the so-called “rejuvenation“, Which experts feared for years, has exploded and now the consequences are there for everyone. “We have the lowest percentage from under 35 years in Europe, ”sums up the demographer Alessandro Rosina. “It simply came to our notice then most important natural resource for any country you want to grow up. We only realized now that there is one Recovery plan with great resources available, but that would require the skills and the qualified contribution of the young people “. The moment of reversing the course is almost over:” There let’s play it all In the next two years. If we continue to put pieces, instead of intervening upstream, we can only manage the declivity so that it is not too much dramatic. The country runs the risk of being outside the major growth processes of the most competitive areas, in a vicious circle of low development “.

State data just says that between 2018 and 2021 the population between 15 and 34 years fell by more than 260 thousand units, to 12 million. He labour force in this age group, which include busy and people looking for a place but not the inactive ones have been further reduced: -278 mil. Twenty years ago, in 2002, they were 9.4 millionin 2012 they had dropped to 7 millionin early 2022 they stopped at 6 million. The range of people aged 30 to 34, young adults heading to the top of working life, is slimming at a very fast pace: in a decade the sum of employed and unemployed of this age decreased from 3 to 2.4 million. “Today I’m a third younger than 50-54,” Rosina resumes over the next 30 years we will see a reduction of a third of the working age population“. Also in this case is the worst data in Europe: the Franceby comparison, it faces a 10% drop. Germany -15% is expected. Meanwhile, the majority is divided Ius scholaethe law that would lead to the recognition of the citizenship to one million children under the age of 18 born in Italy or arrived before the age of 12.

Additionally the picture is the fact that, as they are less and less, young people pay for the usual Italian fragility in the formation (Italy is the first in the EU for dispersion school and by children and young people who they neither study nor workpenultimate for the percentage of children under 35 years graduates), labor supply and demand adjustment services (according to theInapp still today only the 4% of those who find work do so thanks to the Employment Centers), of housing policies and those for the conciliation. And they suffer from the distortions of a market that offers them instead of empowering them hunger wages or in any case insufficient -even in the public sector- to allow the family of origin to be abandoned and build their own. “Rejuvenation is the combination of quantitative decline and that weakening qualitatively. It deposits the main energy that a country can put in place to fuel any growth process. This challenge has not been understood: we are in a time of crucial point“.

In the last decade, between great recession and impact of pandemicthe birth rate plummeted and theimmigration has been reduced accelerating the demographic decline. We are now at a crossroads: from now until 2024, explains the author of It is not a country for young people (Marsilio) i Demographic crisis (Life and thought), we will see if the country is able to trigger a virtuous circle where the wealth produced by young people, by the increase in female employment and forimmigration accompanied by the necessary integration it can be reinvested in welfare and fuel an improvement in the well-being of society or it will end in one vicious circlewith fewer and fewer people creating wealth, fewer resources for welfare will have to be used more and more for the elderly people to the detriment of training, research and active policies, a public debt what happens unsustainablethe new generations increasingly tempted to go abroad, birth rate in further decline. At that time not even a sharp increase in immigration, which is still going on scheduled in advance with a vision of medium-long termwould be enough to compensate for the collapse of the working-age population. “Especially because migrants, especially those with high qualifications, move to countries attractive. Probably not in those in decline, with little employment, no support for families.

Implement the Recovery planwhich among the three cross-cutting priorities indicates the “equality of generational opportunities(Along with the gender ones), according to Rosina, it is not enough to take the virtuous path. “There are youth and women’s employment policies, but it was not understood that they should be included in asystem opticsa: adequate training is needed to strengthen work itineraries, housing policies are needed, support at birth, services that allow reconcile life and work ”, explains Rosina. “And then it’s not enough to find ‘a place’: they have to be places that improve skills and allow for life choices.” Translated: work must allow anyone who wants to can form a family. “The question of salary should be placed in the center. Policies must be tested that allow a situation in which those entering the labor market to gradually stabilize and be able to continue in a continuity of income ”. Not like the current ones incentives to hiring that ends up rewarding those who create jobs precarious. “In Italy there is no custom to evaluate the impact of the measures. The real thing challenge of the Pnrr is this: resources and projects are not enough, you need to check that they have a impact and they really are transformerthat is, they allow people to make decisions that they would not otherwise have made. “

At the moment the signs are bad: winners of public tenders who refuse to work for this salary move north not convenient, workers (young and old) who rightly say no to job offers a few euros per hour. “Potentially we have huge resources at our disposal, but if young people do not see it soon concrete positive effects it will no longer be possible regain their confidence. The time for recycle and inserting the young Neet and giving a perspective to the already trained young people, preventing them from looking for opportunities elsewhere, is that, one in which the country’s system is recovering from the pandemic and companies are looking for staff. One would be needed government campaign explain to the new generations what to expect from the Plan and when, say that the country wants to invest in it. This message has not arrived. ” Are we still on time? “We do not expect it to become something opportunistic in view of the upcoming elections. It has to be done now ”.

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