In fifty years, 12 million fewer Italians

ECONOMY FESTIVAL TRENTO – We are the second country in the world with the oldest, we live longer and even better, but there is no generational change with an ever lower fertility rate to reach (and not from today) a average of 1.5 children per woman. In this situation we enter a demographic trap that jeopardizes current levels of well-being and well-being. Of particular importance is the state’s forecast for 2070: Italians will be 47 million, 12 less than the current figure. Neither will migratory movements be able to bridge this gap. What does Italy need? A real policy of family support and a new model of reception and integration of immigrants within a global design on the sustainability of social models.

“Demography, immigration and the status of women” the stimulating theme proposed at the Trento Festival of Economics around which they debated, with the coordination of the Deputy Director Alberto Orioli Il Sole 24 Ore, Gian Carlo Blangiardo President of the State, Anna Cristina D’Addio Senior Policy Analyst at Unesco Alessandro Rosina, Professor at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Stefano Scarpetta OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and Laura Zanfrini, Professor at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart Sacred Heart and head of economics and labor at the Ismu Sector Foundation. The analysis of such a vast and complex issue was based on data that speaks of an aging Italian population with all the problems that arise. “Since 1977, Italy has been living under generational change with 1.5 children per woman. At this rate,” Blangiardo said, “we have estimated that in fifty years the Italians will be 12 million less. Life expectancy is increasing and we are we will find 1.6 million more than ninety.-teenagers with all that this entails also from the economic point of view: structures capable of accommodating them (since there will no longer be families to take care of them), doctors, drugs .. “Families with one subject grow old and grow. In twenty years’ time, it will be a delusion.”

“For forty years now, we have been witnessing demographic imbalances that lead us to a demographic trap (fewer births and fewer parents tomorrow) with a downward turn from which we can emerge with effective measures. The prospect is the impossibility of Maintaining Welfare and Welfare Levels “. There are fewer and fewer young people and, given the limited investment available, they are moving to other countries “where they find fertile ground to work and perhaps to raise a family and have children,” he added. This is, at least in part, the result of “wrong policies,” as Scarpetta pointed out. Great potential for investment is working women and children’s education. As for women “up to the age of 30 the employment rate in Italy is similar to that in France and Sweden. But when women are absent, perhaps to have a child, they no longer return or if they return they find jobs – Scarpetta pointed out – For children, the school must invest more in the training of quality technicians and, in addition, the transition to a future of hybrid forms of work (smart work and in presence) must be managed with the social agents and not left only to the labor market. Work and family: how difficult is it to reconcile the two needs? So much so that in Italy over the years “fragmented, stop and go measures have been taken, which are not good,” said D’Addio. different ministries., long-term that put the family at the center, to guarantee women the same job opportunities as men and men to take care of their children as well. Pnrr) but also a change of mentality ”.

But are immigrants, we wonder, a solution or part of the demographic problem? According to what Zanfrini called “three rhetoric” are the solution: “They are younger and therefore have more children, they do the work that the Italians do not want to do, they will pay us pensions. Immigration was a solution but it is becoming part of the problem since there is a very low integration model whose nodes are reaching the end point: they earn on average 38% less than Italian workers, they live thanks to illegal work and early school leaving “It’s very high. The problems of immigrants are the problems of Italian society. And that’s why we need to think about immigration in a global design about the sustainability of social models,” he said.



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